Can Influencer Social Data Predict The 2015 Oscars Winners?

It’s awards season! And with The Academy Awards quickly approaching, we couldn’t wait to find out the winners. We took a data-driven approach to predicting this year’s big Oscar winners: Best Picture, Best Actor (in a leading role) and Best Actress (in a leading role).

Here’s how we did it

We started by using Traackr to discover a list of Oscar, celebrity, Hollywood and film influencers.Screen Shot 2015-02-17 at 3.04.46 PM

Then we came up with our winner predictions by using the keyword mention tool within Traackr’s analytics. Our hypothesis is: nominees most mentioned by influencers leading up to The Oscars = winners. So, we input keywords for each of the nominees. Here’s what the data looks like:

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And the winners are…

Based on our data – keyword mentions from key film and celebrity influencers – seems that the winners will be Birdman for best film (coming in at an almost too close to call second – American Sniper), Bradley Cooper for best actor, and Julianne Moore for best actress.

By further analyzing our data, we noticed that controversy surrounding American Sniper could have resulted in higher noise around the title and Bradley Cooper. Which doesn’t necessarily mean they will be big winners…

What do you think? Can this type of data predict award winners?

Meanwhile, in the business world

While analyzing this data is fun for predicting Oscar winners, for businesses it’s important to ask the question “so what?” with social data. Your social analytics need to drive action, and if you’re monitoring influencers’ keyword mentions, competitor share of voice, or otherwise, what will you do with the data?

By 2018, brands will allot 11.7% of their marketing budgets for analytics. However, Christine Moorman, a professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business and director of the noted piece of research says, “We observe that companies under-utilize the marketing analytics that they’ve requested and have available for decision making…”

It’s important for social marketing professionals to remember
“Insight that doesn’t lead to action is pointless”

Source: Sam Oakley, econsultancy

If you’re analyzing keyword mentions from influencers, one answer to the “so what?” question is: social data can inform your influencer marketing strategy. If you notice an influencer is mentioning your competitors more than you, it’s time to get on their radar. These insights can help drive your social engagement action, influencer content strategy, community management and much more.

Tips on engaging with influencers? That’s another topic for another blog post – good news is we have a ton of resources! To get started, check out our Guide To Influencer Marketing.